The Trump administration and its ardent MAGA advocates find themselves in an intriguing juncture. The object of concern here isn’t the umbrella of the Epstein scandal causing fissures among the committed followers of an imperfect leader. Rather, evolving dynamics in Trump’s international policies draw our attention, policies that have veered noticeably from the path he had previously charted.
Contrary to his previous assurance of orchestrating a truce with Russian President Putin and resolving the Ukrainian conflict ‘within a day’s time’ during the election campaign of 2024, or imposing a complete cessation of all American aid to Ukraine, Trump exhibits unexpected shifts. He is now committing to offer Kyiv amplified military backing, and at one point, even touted a direct attack on Moscow addressed to President Zelensky of Ukraine, only to backtrack on his recommendation later.
These policy adjustments are not to be mistaken for Biden-era support pledges, and a judicious challenge to the longevity of these renewed commitments stands. However, it is undeniable that this is an abrupt change in stance that has elicited significant reproval from the erstwhile dedicated MAGA crowd.
A sudden inclination towards NATO, deviating from a prior preference to withdraw from European affairs and focusing primarily on Asia, is also a surprising step for Trump. Also, his persistent vendettas against those he perceives as adversaries compel our attention.
This, coupled with the observable cognitive decline, along with his unchallenged reign over the arguably most corrupt administration in the history of U.S., provides a complex picture. As evidenced by his actions that deviate from the path he promised his supporters, Trump, at his age, is unlikely to undergo drastic personality changes.
It is plausible to suppose that Trump, once again, is struggling against the powerful ‘Blob’, the foreign policy establishment, despite his repeated attempts to assert control. I have articulated earlier that Trump’s initial term was stunted largely due to his lack of understanding about the functioning of government and inability to devise a cogent strategy for defeating the Blob.
His tactic of placing pliant underlings at the helm of vital departments didn’t produce the desired results. It begins with Trump being an ineffective supervisor, someone who consistently fails to offer clear, well-defined and stable directives to his staff.
The crux of the issue is that to successfully challenge the might of the Blob, it demands a president to identify and appoint shrewd, seasoned, well-informed individuals in key positions, and liaise with them to formulate a compatible strategy that resonates with alternative principles. Yet, even with two chances at instituting this change, the president has faltered both times.
Offering a gentler interpretation, one could argue that these policy shifts are merely Trump’s adaptation to reality. A testament to his willingness to change his stance comes forth in the recent agreement where Nvidia gets clearance to recommence the advanced chip sales to China. This suggests a retreat from earlier attempts to check Chinese technological progression using export restrictions.
The primary driving force behind these twists in Trump’s international policy emanates from the need to cater to the president’s self-perception. The increased military support to Ukraine isn’t born from a new-found dedication to ensuring its independence, but more a reaction to Putin’s actions that made him feel undermined.
The sudden endorsement of NATO was precipitated by the generous flattery he received from the NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, comparable to the adulation expected at medieval courts. The scenario that unfolds here, an impetuous and unstable leader issuing directives to appointees primarily selected for their loyalty rather than competency, doesn’t bode well for effective governance.
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