A rare event has unfolded in the United States, one unseen since the era of Pancho ‘La Cucaracha’ Villa and his rebellious outlaws (known as los Villistas) overran the southern border, invading Columbus, New Mexico, back in 1916. Today, we find ourselves facing another purported invasion, a claim touted by our administration. If we are to believe the warnings of the government, a ‘red dawn’ has arrived, signalling an encroachment by Venezuelan irregulars. Specifically, this menace arrives in the shape of the Tren de Aragua (Aragua Train), a malicious entity birthed within prison walls that eventually morphed into a recognized potential terrorist threat.
The state’s narrative portrays the Tren de Aragua or TdA as cohorts of the notorious Cártel de los Soles (Cartel of the Suns). The latter is deemed a ‘narco-terrorism enterprise,’ purportedly controlled by the communist government in Caracas. The labeling of TdA as an insurgent force that conducts heinous crimes, from murders and kidnappings to trafficking in drugs, humans, and weapons, and is actively engaging in a mutiny against the U.S. in collaboration with the Caracas regime certainly paints a brush-stroked picture of looming danger.
Correctly, crimes have been committed by this notorious Latin terror group, but the link drawn between their terrorism, the Caracas administration, and an active anti-U.S. rebellion seems unfounded. An interesting discord to this narrative emerged from the U.S.’s National Intelligence Council, a document declassified in April noted, ‘while Venezuela’s permissive environment enables TDA to operate, the [President] Maduro Regime probably does not have a policy of cooperating with TDA and is not directing TDA movement to, and operations in, the United States.’
It is undeniable that the TdA is steeped in infamy, demonstrated by the harrowing 2024 episode where surveillance footage from a Colorado housing unit showed an armed group of gang members storming the halls, breaching an apartment, shortly before a resident was brutally murdered outside. Homeland Security Assistant Secretary, Tricia McLaughlin, highlighted the aggression of this group, stating, ‘Tren De Aragua is one of the most violent and ruthless terrorist gangs on planet earth. They rape, maim, and murder for sport.’ However, a comprehensive examination exposes a nuanced situation.
Contrary to popular perception, while undoubtedly violent, the TdA’s existence outside of Venezuela is minimal, primarily persisting in diaspora settings like Colombia, Peru, and Chile. Domestic security forces in these countries have arrested numerous members over recent years. Back in their homeland of Venezuela, their reputation bears a stark contrast, with their influence dwindling, their once powerful ranks now severely depleted.
During TdA’s apex years, it retained around 3,000 members worldwide. Even today, it faces substantial opposition within Venezuela itself; significant cartels with sizeable paramilitary forces offer stiff competition, capable of contending effectively with police. This provides an important context to the alarming narrative proliferated by the American administration.
America’s own societal challenges provide a somber background to this scenario. The country’s homicide rate far outstrips those of other G7 nations, its life expectancy is the lowest, savings are scant, and homelessness is rampant. When considering problems like widespread drug abuse, death tolls due to overdoses, and our cities that resemble post-apocalyptic landscapes, we see a mirror of our own societal failures.
Our nation is saturated with prison gangs boasting membership in the thousands and has become a fertile ground for Mexican cartels. We’ve witnessed an escalation in areas where communication with law enforcement is considered taboo or perilous. Even our capital suffered a breach — adding a distinct, unsettling element of turbulence. Until recently, policies in place actively encouraged mass illegal immigration, resulting in millions crossing our borders.
The plight does not end here. For ordinary citizens, overwhelming medical expenses often thrust individuals into financial destitution under a misshapen healthcare ‘system’. In my home state of Oregon, chronic absenteeism affects over a third of the school students. Additionally, academic research has identified a downward trend in American IQs, reversing historical progress. I recall working with a woman in her late twenties, a mother of three, who enquired about the meaning of ‘quarter to eight.’ She did not know how to read a clock.
Our society, it appears, often counters pervasive ignorance by simply lowering standards to match. Such instances align us eerily with the issues rampant in so-called ‘Third World’ countries — a reflection we hesitate to acknowledge. A few paragraphs earlier, I was ready to argue that TdA criminals have no place in our society. But in retrospect, it seems we’ve bred a ‘permissive environment’ where such elements might fit all too well.
A major contributor to the societal decay was the dramatic plunge in oil revenues after 2014, bringing about an economic disaster of unfathomable scale. It led to the evacuation of approximately 8 million people over subsequent years, as the economy shrunk by an alarming 80%. In the words of one observer, ‘It’s probably the largest ever economic collapse outside of wartime in any country.’
The healthcare sector was among the hardest hit, with public hospitals failing to offer even the most rudimentary care. These facilities became so dire that entering one would likely exacerbate one’s condition unless personal funds allowed the purchase of essential medical supplies. Blood transfusions, crucial equipment, and even functioning machinery had to be procured by the patients themselves, further highlighting the depth of the crisis.
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