It’s often said that presidential debates have little sway when it comes to changing the minds of voters. Despite this belief, with the margin of undecided voters ranging between 3% and 6% as early as September, even a slight tilt induced by a debate can entirely alter the trajectory of an election. It was clearly evident in the contentious debate that occured on June 27 between President Joe Biden and the formidable former president Donald Trump. Following this exchange, the dynamics of the entire campaign and Democrat ticket were thrown off course.
With extensive research in the field dating back to 1980, when I was still a graduate student, I have a comprehensive understanding of presidential debates. My investigations involve detailed argument analyses often leveraging statistical techniques, focus groups of potential voters, and opinion polls to assess the impact of debates on the public’s knowledge and political inclinations. Most significantly, I delve into how debates help in defining a campaign’s future arguments and strategies.
Given the conclusions of my considerable analysis, I can confidently argue the relevance of tuning in to the upcoming September 10 debate between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. It remains crucial, regardless of whether you’ve already made up your mind, as there’s much more to these debates than just picking a side.
A common misconception is that a debate comes down to winners and losers. However, this is the furthest thing from the truth. Justifying this assertion are instances such as the debates of Walter Mondale in 1984, Michael Dukakis in 1988, and John Kerry in 2004; despite ‘winning’ their respective debates, they failed to secure the election. To loyal supporters, their candidate is always the victor. Instead of emphasizing the winning aspect, debates should tackle important questions like ‘Which candidate better demonstrates the leadership characteristics I value?’ and ‘Whose political beliefs overlap the most with my own?’
The debate serves as a platform to prominently highlight candidates’ stances on key issues and how they position their personas. While their arguments and policy points are crucial, it doesn’t mean that they are everything in a debate. As several focus-group studies have elucidated, the issues and policies that candidates choose to bring up often give voters an insight into their potential leadership style and priorities.
The behavior of a candidate during a debate is a direct reflection of their nature and is closely observed by many voters. One vivid example is the 2000 debate in which focus group members questioned Al Gore’s character after his eye-rolling reaction to George W. Bush’s contributions. They were compelled to ask how Gore would interact with someone with opposing views in the Oval Office. Similarly, Trump’s interjections during the 2020 debates caused a stir among the focus group members of all political affiliations.
The reality is that most debates don’t provide much new information. Nevertheless, they are always filled with surprising questions and answers. While Kamala Harris’ campaign trail has not been a long one this year, she has not shied away from rolling out significant positions. Yet, they lack the necessary depth and specifics. Candidates usually have been campaigning for over a year, with multiple debates during primaries making their agendas clear. This has not been the case with Harris
The aftermath of a debate often provides the platform to add meat to the bare-bone ideas presented during the debate stage. Therefore, watching these political exchanges rarely serves as the deciding factor for voters in the initial stages. Instead, these events serve as preliminary steps for undecided voters.
Trump, as a candidate, is quite an oddity in American politics – a known entity whose unpredictable shifts in positions keep the voters in a constant state of anticipation. Given that he has flip-flopped more in this election than ever before, he is likely to be placed under scrutiny for these fluctuating stances.
Regardless of the firm beliefs held before the debates, voters should tune in with as open a mind as possible. It’s paramount to weigh the politicians on more profound aspects than mere claims of victory or defeat. After all, the political future of our nation depends on these exchanges that could potentially shift the balance in a tight race.
The September debate will serve as an essential event to shed light on the contenders’ ideals, leadership styles, and their vision for America. Rather than a singular event defining their choice, voters should look at debates as the foundation for their decision-making process. Taking into account the unstable political landscape, these events can drive the nation’s course.
Leadership style and personality traits are critical aspects of the candidates profiled during these debates. We’ve seen in the past, such as in the 2020 debate, that certain behaviors can cause controversy and drastically influence voters’ perception of a candidate. Therefore, debates serve the purpose of presenting these aspects to the public light.
As politics continually evolves, candidates must strive to demonstrate their adaptability to the changes. A debate is a chance for them to showcase this quality. As a voter, it becomes pertinent to observe these measures and make an informed choice.
In conclusion, the significance of presidential debates is profound, as they illuminate candidates’ views on critical issues, their personality, and leadership styles. Despite the narrative oft-repeated about there being clear winners or losers, the reality is much more nuanced. By engaging with these debates, voters can arm themselves with the knowledge and insights needed to make an informed and well-thought-out decision.
Biden Struggles, Trump Prevails in Recent Debate appeared first on Real News Now.
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