This past Friday witnessed the culmination of a significant drug war trial as a leading narco honcho, frequently referred to as the Narco Prince, was handed a life sentence along with 30 more years by a federal judge in Washington, D.C. The accused, Rubén Oseguera-Gonzalez, also known by the nickname ‘El Menchito’, is the American-born offspring of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, the elusive founder of the notorious Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). This is one of the initial trials to wrap up since the Trump administration designated select Mexican cartels as ‘terrorist’ entities.
Under the alias ‘El Mencho’, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes is considered Mexico’s most wanted individual and continues to dodge the authorities. El Menchito, on the other hand, quietly stood trail and received his sentence with his left hand held behind his back. He showed no inclination to defend himself or explain his actions to the court. He was found guilty by a US jury in September of involvement in cocaine and methamphetamine trafficking and possession of weapons in service of these activities.
Throughout the period of the trial, the prosecution worked to assemble a case not merely on the basis of El Menchito being a foot soldier for the criminal outfit, but also as a formative influence in establishing and presiding over the cartel with his father. The prosecution, in a sentencing document, situated El Menchito at an equal footing with other well-known cartel heads in the likes of Joaquín ‘El Chapo’ Guzmán, the erstwhile Sinaloa Cartel leader making headlines globally.
The stance taken by the Trump administration during its tenure has been an aggressive and intensified attempt to launch a strategic attack on drug smuggling operations. Alongside, it has also laid pressure on the Mexican administration to control unlawful immigration and the flourishing fentanyl trafficking by flexing the tool of potential tariffs.
However, Oseguera’s achieving justice, the steps taken by the Trump administration, and the major advancements in legal processes against over two dozen of high-profile traffickers are predicted to contribute minimally to curbing drug trafficking and related violence. It is far more likely that such actions will fragment the criminal ecosystem further, which could escalate the level of violence in Mexico.
Post the 2006 initiation of the American-Mexican drug war, the CJNG has expanded at a striking pace to ultimately evolve as one of the largest criminal organizations in Mexico. With largely fluctuating control over territories, primarily in the western, central, and southern regions of Mexico, it continues to be in frequent conflict with rival cartels due to territorial contention.
In recent legal proceedings involving Oseguera, government prosecutors from D.C. referred to the CJNG as ‘arguably the most violent cartel in Mexico today’. They drew a direct association between the growth trajectory of CJNG and the life path of Oseguera. Despite his relatively young age, Oseguera has spent an estimated third of his life either in Mexican or American custody.
Considerable bloodshed marked the year 2010, which followed arrests and assassinations of superior leaders, leading to the CJNG splintering and launching a war. Available court data reveals that both El Mencho and his progeny also oversaw multiple methamphetamine labs scattered across Mexico.
The CJNG has become globally infamous for their routinely violent actions and consistent propaganda campaigns. On one notable occasion in 2015, it reached international headlines by attacking a Mexican military helicopter, leaving nine officials dead. From his teenage years, Oseguera worked alongside his father and other leading figures in Mexican organized crime syndicates.
While in prison, Oseguera continued to maintain contact with and influence over the organization’s operations, referring to himself as the second-in-command. His team of defense attorneys argued that Oseguera was simply a victim of circumstances and had been involuntarily thrust into a life of crime by being the son of El Mencho.
Utilising the aftermath of the sentencing, one of Oseguera’s attorneys announced their intention to appeal the verdict. Experts well-versed with Mexican organized crime collectively share two opinions – the sentencing will hardly impact the river of drug trafficking and associated violence and the recent arrests of top leaders extradited to the U.S. will also have negligible effect.
As per their explanation, these organizations exhibit highly decentralized operations and removing one pivotal head necessitates a continuous chain of similar interventions to effectively disintegrate these groups. Despite such disintegration, the trend has been for these groups to then multiply, split into various cells and regroup under new leadership and identification.
Several massive upheavals have been witnessed in the last few years in terms of drug war arrests and prosecutions. Foreseeing these trends, it is predicted they are set to persist, considering the internal discord and power play unravelling within the Sinaloa Cartel.
One of the major arrests last summer was of Ismael ‘El Mayo’ Zambada, the erstwhile elusive leader of the Sinaloa Cartel,. In an unexpected turn of events, one of El Chapo’s own sons apprehended the ageing drug kingpin, transported him across the border, and handed him over to the US authorities. His trial proceedings have only just begun in New York and it is anticipated that the prosecution will ask for capital punishment.
In the backdrop of a fentanyl overdose crisis in the US, the Trump administration is working towards intensifying the crackdown on Mexican organized crime circles. Several groups have been listed as terrorists by Trump’s State Department. Taking a defensive position, Mexico perceives these actions as a potential violation of its sovereignty. Recently, Mexico showed acquiescence to the US administration by transferring nearly 30 key criminal bosses to their custody. Assessing the foreseeable future, one academic posed a poignant statement: ‘The sentencing of ‘El Menchito’ means very little in this failed ‘war.’ We have seen this movie many times before and I’m afraid we will keep seeing it in the near future to no effect.’
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