The political landscape has dramatically transformed since Joe Biden recused himself from office and Kamal Harris swept up the Democratic nomination with swiftness. The intriguing element is whether Donald Trump accurately perceives how substantially this race has morphed and the underlying reasons. Numerous commentators pondered the Democrats’ confidence in a Biden win after the June presidential debate. Yet, the kernels of a Biden loss were sown considerably in advance, effectively constituting the early stages of his term. Grasping his political descent demands a reflection on his 2020 triumph — fundamentally attributed to his success among independents by a 13 point margin according to exit polls.
During the prior election, about 51 percent of independent voters seemed to harbor a positive opinion of Biden, while 45 percent held the opposite sentiment. Although not particularly outstanding, Biden had won over a slim majority nonetheless. However, his advisors decided to lean solidly towards the left to satisfy their base rather than maintaining a moderate path. Following two years of progressive policies, his popularity plunged among independents.
The repercussions of the 2022 Democrat’s defeat over the House are indicative: Biden’s favorable to unfavorable ratio among independents dropped significantly from a 51/45 percent to a stark 37/60 percent according to exit polls. His earlier success in forming a majority coalition had been thoroughly dismantled. At that stage, his unfavorable image continued to deteriorate at lightning speed, soon matching that of Trump.
By the start of 2024, an important group of voters was established. This group, which looked unfavorably upon both Biden and Trump, could be pivotal in influencing the election outcome. They represented about 20 percent of the electorate and a remarkable 40 percent of independents. This raises an interesting question: who do voters who don’t like either candidate opt for?
The argument that they might abstain from voting does make a case; however, looking back at the 2016 election, this group of voters who had unfavorable views towards both Hillary Clinton and Trump, proved essential to Trump’s victory. Interestingly, Trump remarkably won over a significant portion of this group by a 17 point margin, 47-30 percent.
In the 2024 scenario, Biden and Trump both seemed unable to secure their trust, leaving many voters undecided. Harris’s emergence as the Democratic nominee drastically impacted the status quo. Although her favorability continues to suffer, it’s a marked improvement over Biden’s image. As per a July poll analyzing public opinion, Harris had a 46-50 percent favorable-unfavorable standing, compared to Biden’s staggering 41-57 percent. Trump didn’t fare much better, at a similar 42-57 percent.
Despite 50 percent of the turnout holding a negative view of Harris, her unpopularity was 7 points lower than Biden’s. This very quantifiable difference led to the significant reshuffling of the electoral race in the past weeks, tilting the balance. Trump’s predicament in the face of these dynamics is not entirely simple. Data from the July survey shows that while 19 percent held unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump, just 13 percent shared similar views towards Harris and Trump.
Of interest, of the voters who viewed both Biden and Trump negatively, 60 percent viewed Harris unfavorably as well. However, the remaining 40 percent of these pivotal voters hold a positive or neutral view of Harris. This reception hints at how Harris may have won over a fraction of these voters, thereby explaining her current popularity surge.
The race for Trump is no longer the same. At the moment, his disapproval rating surpasses that of Harris, and his approval rating is comparably lower, including among independents. However, Trump still holds one key advantage: he resonates with voters on the economy and inflation. According to the same July survey, 41 percent of the electorate ranked these as their top concerns. When it comes to managing these issues, Republicans had a hand up above Democrats by a 10-point lead (49-39 percent), with an 11-point lead on inflation (49-38 percent).
A meager 39 percent of voters approve of Biden’s handling of the economy with a resounding 55 percent voicing their disapproval. Voters believe inflation is worsening. Yet, Republicans have faced a remarkable challenge in converting those economic views into electoral support. An important reason why the ‘red wave’ didn’t materialize in the 2022 election was this inability, reflected in their weak performance among independent voters.
Traditionally, independents have leaned Republican when a Democrat is in office, and this held true for ten consecutive elections. However, in the 2022 exit polls, Republicans lost this group by a slight 2 point margin. Independents identified inflation as their top issue, with 79 percent describing the economy as ‘not so good’ or poor. While Republicans held an 11-point lead on the issue of inflation, independents who regarded the economy as ‘not so good’ voted for the Democratic candidate by a striking 29-point edge.
Despite having an 11-point advantage on the top issue, Republicans lost independents by 2 points, representing a swing of 13 points. It demonstrates a missed opportunity for Republicans and a signal that independent voters needed a more robust economic message from Republicans rather than hearing just to ‘fire the Democrats’.
The key question for Trump and other Republican candidates is whether they learned that lesson from the 2022 election results. The growing calls from many Republicans for Trump to concentrate on policy are a favourable development. Solely highlighting the shortcomings of Biden and Harris doesn’t seem to be efficient. Trump along with congressional Republicans need to provide solutions to revive the economy.
Harris recently presented Trump and Republicans with an opportunity. In her first economic policy statement since her nomination, Harris supported Trump’s innovative proposal to eliminate taxes on gratuities. However, Trump missed the mark in his response. Rather than welcoming her support for his idea, and expressing hope that she would join other Trump initiatives, he focused on the beastly act of ‘stealing’ his idea, making it an issue of her character.
If Trump does not adapt by focusing his strategy more on policy than personal attacks, the road ahead could prove to be a challenge, something entirely at odds with his positive persona. Trump should adopt a more astute approach to responses and focus his efforts on offering cogent policy alternatives to build a brighter future for the American people.
Trump’s Unmatched Expertise in Economy and Inflation appeared first on Real News Now.
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